The Wind That Shakes the Barley

What impact will the election of have on regional and Mexican politics?

We are, as a matter of principal, respectful of the democratic processes of every country. It is in this sense that we will discuss the economic policy measures to be implemented in the US in the coming year. We will have to wait and see if all the proposals made during the campaign are indeed translated into economic policymaking. In any case, we must be aware of the possibility of a renegotiation of the NAFTA and how discussions about immigration control and border security might change in the US, since these are central to President Trump’s agenda. In the following months, we will observe the orientation of various migration issues. This includes: the policy toward documented migrants already living in the US; the actions and programs around the estimated 12 million undocumented migrants living there; and the policy on the separation of families by deporting undocumented members.

Are Mexico’s wide-ranging economic reforms consistent with the UN’s agenda for 2030?

The structural reforms represent an opportunity for the Mexican economy to reach economic growth rates above 2.5% in the coming years, as well as reduce poverty. A less dynamic economic scenario makes these reforms even more necessary. One of the aims of the structural reforms is to improve wages and increase employment, which will impact outmigration and generate opportunities for renewed dialog with the new US administration. Greater efficiency, production, and formal employment that is well paid is the key to strengthening domestic demand. Telecommunications sector reform has already contributed to the entry of new players and reduced tariffs. Meanwhile, financial reform has led to an increase in credit and investment, and tax reform has succeeded in increasing public revenues in line with the UN’s focus on domestic resource mobilization for development.

In contrast to stagnant GDP growth in most of Latin America, Mexico is expected to reach 3% in 2017. What factors have enabled it to do this?

ECLAC estimates that in 2016 the Mexican economy will expand by 1.9%, below the 2.5% registered in 2015. Among the factors that directly affect this deceleration are: the negative performance of the US manufacturing sector (highly linked to Mexican exports); international economic and financial instability; and the decline in public revenues (mainly from oil) and public spending, which led to a slowdown in domestic consumption in the second half of 2016. In 2017, the ECLAC estimates economic growth of around 2.2% because of a slight improvement in external demand, mainly from the US, which is expected to be offset by lower investment and public spending as a consequence of lower public oil revenues. We must be attentive to the evolution of US economic policy measures and their impact on the Mexican economy.

What differentiates the Dominican Republic from many of its neighboring Caribbean nations in terms of its political and economic structure?

Despite the slowdown in global growth, trade, and investment flows around the world, the Dominican economy has continued to grow at noteworthy rates. This is due to a variety of factors. On the external side, despite the increased uncertainty in international financial markets, FDI to the economy has remained strong, and the government continues to see an over-subscription for its sovereign bond issuances.